Manufacturing Sector - January 2013

Business Survey of the Manufacturing Sector in the Milan Area.

In January 2013, manufacturing confidence in the Milan area rose for the third consecutive month.

In detail

The confidence climate index moved from 93.4 in December to 94.5 in January. The increase of the indicator was due to an improvement in production expectations that were positive for the third consecutive month. In countertrend, stocks were in accumulation, whilst the contribution of domestic and foreign demand was neutral.

In terms of assessments, industrial production was picking up for the second consecutive month, backing on the value of October 2012. Foreign turnover reached its highest level since May 2008. Also domestic turnover increased, while maintaining negative balance. Employment collapsed, backing on a negative balance.

With reference to forecasts for the next 3-4 months, foreign orders expectations marked the peak since March 2011, showing a wide positive balance. Also national orders expectations rose, but staying negative.

Finally, opinions about the Italian economic situation improved, reaching their highest value since March 2012.

1. Graphs

Graph 1 - Confidence climate

 clima.jpg

Graph 2 - Production assessment

 produzione.jpg

Graph 3 - Assessment on domestic orders

ordini_int.jpg 

Graph 4 - Assessment on foreign orders

ordini_est.jpg 

Graph 5 - Inventories

 scorte.jpg

Graph 6 - Production expectation

 prev_prod.jpg

2. Data

Table 1 - Confidence climate1

Reference period Index
(2005=100)
October-12 90.8
November-12 91.7
December-12 93.4
January-13 94.5

1 The industrial confidence indicator is the arithmetic average of the seasonally adjusted data on production expectations, order books and stocks of finished products (with inverted sign). The index base is 2005=100.

 Table 2 - Production

Reference period Assessment
seasonally adj. data
Assessment
raw data
Expectation
seasonally adj. data

Expectation
seasonally adj. data

October-12 -5 6 -5 -20
November-12 -12 -30 1 -11
December-12 -7 -47 1 5
January-13 -4 11 5 18

Table 3 - Domestic orders

Reference period Assessment
seasonally adj. data
Assessment
raw data
Expectation
seasonally adj. data

Expectation
seasonally adj. data

October-12 -12 -2 -8 -21
November-12 -20 -37 -10 -20
December-12 -15 -49 -8 -5
January-13 -14 5 -2 10

Table 4 - Foreign orders

Reference period Assessment
seasonally adj. data
Assessment
raw data
Expectation
seasonally adj. data

Expectation
seasonally adj. data

October-12 -11 -4 1 -9
November-12 -17 -26 8 -2
December-12 -4 -33 1 5
January-13 -3 8 18 25

Table 5 - Domestic turnover

Reference period Assessment
seasonally adj. data
Assessment
raw data
October-12 -10 -5
November-12 -21 -30
December-12 -7 -47
January-13 -5 5

 Table 6 - Foreign turnover

Reference period Assessment
seasonally adj. data
Assessment
raw data
October-12 -1 8
November-12 -15 -28
December-12 10 -32
January-13 11 18

Table 7 - Other balances

Reference period Inventories
seasonally adj. data
Inventories
raw data
Employment
seasonally adj. data
Employment
raw data
Expectations on economic situation
seasonally adj. data
Expectations on economic situation
raw data
October-12 2 0 -10 -11 -41 -40
November-12 -2 0 -2 -2 -45 -45
December-12 1 1 0 -6 -31 -32
January-13 2 0 -4 -9 -27 -27

 

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