Manufacturing Sector - November 2012

Business Survey of the Manufacturing Sector in the Milan Area.

In November 2012 manufacturing confidence in the Milan area rebounded a little without, however, recovering the loss of October.

In detail 

The confidence climate index moved from 90.7 in October to 91.3 in November. The slight increase of the indicator was due to an improvement in production expectations, that showed a value just above zero, and to a drawdown in stock levels, which backed on a negative balance. In countertrend, domestic and foreing orders shrank further, worsening their negative balance.

In terms of assessments, industrial production nosedived, marking the lowest value since July 2012. Foreign turnover went down, reaching the minimum since the end of 2009, so did the domestic one that backed on the value of June 2012. Employment rose on the September levels, while maintaining a negative balance.

With reference to forecasts for the next 3-4 months, foreign orders expectations enhanced, strengthening their positive balance and peaking since May 2011. On the contrary, national orders expectations which were in downward motion and with a negative balance, lost the small recovery of the previous month.

Finally, opinions about the Italian economic situation worsened, stressing their already seriously negative balance.

1. Graphs

Graph 1 - Confidence climate

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Graph 2 - Production assessment

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Graph 3 - Assessment on domestic orders

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Graph 4 - Assessment on foreign orders

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Graph 5 - Inventories

Graph 6 - Production expectation

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2. Data

Table 1 - Confidence climate1

Reference period Index
(2005=100)
August-12 94.6
September-12 94.8
October-12  90.7
November-12 91.3

1 The industrial confidence indicator is the arithmetic average of the seasonally adjusted data on production expectations, order books and stocks of finished products (with inverted sign). The index base is 2005=100.

Table 2 - Production

Reference period Assessment
seasonally adj. data
Assessment
raw data
Expectation
seasonally adj. data

Expectation
seasonally adj. data

August-12 -8 -71 3 7
September-12 -2 41 -2 -8
October-12 -5 6 -5 -20
November-12 -13 -30 1 -11

Table 3 - Domestic orders

Reference period Assessment
seasonally adj. data
Assessment
raw data
Expectation
seasonally adj. data

Expectation
seasonally adj. data

August-12 -14 -68 -7 -3
September-12 -11 25 -11 -14
October-12 -12 -2 -8 -21
November-12 -20 -37 -10 -20

Table 4 - Foreign orders

Reference period Assessment
seasonally adj. data
Assessment
raw data
Expectation
seasonally adj. data

Expectation
seasonally adj. data

August-12 -6 -58 3 5
September-12 -7 23 -6 -10
October-12 -11 -4 1 -9
November-12 -18 -26 8 -2

Table 5 - Domestic turnover

Reference period Assessment
seasonally adj. data
Assessment
raw data
August-12 -13 -71
September-12 -6 31
October-12 -11 -5
November-12 -18 -30

 

Table 6 - Foreign turnover

Reference period Assessment
seasonally adj. data
Assessment
raw data
August-12 -2 -59
September-12 -3 33
October-12 -2 8
November-12 -16 -28

Table 7 - Other balances

Reference period Inventories
seasonally adj. data
Inventories
raw data
Employment
seasonally adj. data
Employment
raw data
Expectations on economic situation
seasonally adj. data
Expectations on economic situation
raw data
August-12 -1 -5 -6 -10 -37 -37
September-12 -5 -6 -3 0 -36 -37
October-12 2 0 -11 -11 -41 -40
November-12 -2 0 -2 -2 -45 -45

 

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