Manufacturing Sector - September 2013

In September 2013, manufacturing confidence in the Milan area dropped compared to the peak of August, but it remained well above the average value of the first seven months of the year.

In detail

The confidence climate index moved from 100.0 in August to 96.7 in September: the brilliant achievement of August should be taken with extreme caution given the particular features of the case.  Even worse than in August, production expectation remained the highest in the last two years, while the situation was confirmed weak on the demand side: domestic orders slipped on the minimum value since March 2013 and the balance of foreign orders is still equal to zero. At last, stocks are still in decumulation, remaining below the level considered normal.

In terms of assessments, industrial production shrank for the third consecutive month, returning to the level of February 2013. Domestic and foreign turnover worsened, in particular the latter had again a negative balance. Employment was stable on the negative balance of the previous month.

With reference to forecasts for the next 3-4 months, orders expectations improved, in particular the indication was stronger on the foreign demand, which balance reached the maximum level since March 2011. Finally, opinions about the Italian economic situation worsened, strengthened the still negative balance.

1. Graphs

Graph 1 - Confidence climate

Graph 2 - Production assessment

Graph 3 - Assessment on domestic orders

Graph 4 - Assessment on foreign orders

Graph 5 - Inventories

Graph 6 - Production expectation

2. Data

Table 1 - Confidence climate¹

1 The industrial confidence indicator is the arithmetic average of the seasonally adjusted data on production expectations, order books and stocks of finished products (with inverted sign). The index base is 2005=100.

Table 2 - Production

Table 3 - Domestic orders

Table 4 - Foreign orders

Table 5 - Domestic turnover

Table 6 - Foreign turnover

Table 7 - Other balances

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