Manufacturing Sector - March 2013

Business Survey of the Manufacturing Sector in the Milan Area.

In March 2013, manufacturing confidence in the Milan area reached its maximum level since September 2011

In detail

The confidence climate index moved from 93.5 in February to 95.5 in March. The reclimbing of the indicator was dragged only by foreign orders, which recovery were disclosed from the foreign orders forecast of the previous three months. Also domestic demand improved, althought slightly, confirming a negative balance. Nevertheless firms showed some signs of prudence; in fact, inventories still destocked, and production expectation fell, remaining positive.

In terms of assessments, industrial production rose, remaing steadily negative. Domestic and foreign turnover increased considerably: in particular, the second one, moved to a positive balance. Employment grew, marking the highest value since July 2011 and showing a value abouve zero.

With reference to forecasts for the next 3-4 months, domestic and foreign orders expectations were nearly unchanged, respectively with negative and positive balances.

Finally, opinions about the Italian economic situation remained strongly negative, confirming the value recorded on February, when the indicator worsened noticeably as a risult of the uncertain political situation.

1. Graphs

Graph 1 - Confidence climate

 clima.jpg

Graph 2 - Production assessment

 produzione.jpg

Graph 3 - Assessment on domestic orders

 ordini_int.jpg

Graph 4 - Assessment on foreign orders

 ordini_est.jpg

Graph 5 - Inventories

 scorte.jpg

Graph 6 - Production expectation

 previsioni-produzione.jpg

2. Data

Table 1 - Confidence climate1

Reference period Index
(2005=100)
December-12 93.3
January-13 93.9
February-13 93.5
March-13 95.5

1 The industrial confidence indicator is the arithmetic average of the seasonally adjusted data on production expectations, order books and stocks of finished products (with inverted sign). The index base is 2005=100.

 Table 2 - Production

Reference period Assessment
seasonally adj. data
Assessment
raw data
Expectation
seasonally adj. data

Expectation
seasonally adj. data

December-12 -8 -47 1 5
January-13 -5 11 5 18
February-13 -9 0 5 14
March-13 -4 11 1 6

Table 3 - Domestic orders

Reference period Assessment
seasonally adj. data
Assessment
raw data
Expectation
seasonally adj. data

Expectation
seasonally adj. data

December-12 -16 -49 -8 -5
January-13 -16 5 -2 10
February-13 -21 -15 -3 4
March-13 -17 -11 -2 0

Table 4 - Foreign orders

Reference period Assessment
seasonally adj. data
Assessment
raw data
Expectation
seasonally adj. data

Expectation
seasonally adj. data

December-12 -3 -33 2 5
January-13 -5 8 17 25
February-13 -14 -4 13 18
March-13 6 10 14 17

Table 5 - Domestic turnover

Reference period Assessment
seasonally adj. data
Assessment
raw data
December-12 -8 -47
January-13 -6 5
February-13 -26 -11
March-13 -5 -2

Table 6 - Foreign turnover

Reference period Assessment
seasonally adj. data
Assessment
raw data
December-12 9 -32
January-13 11 18
February-13 -18 -3
March-13 6 14

Table 7 - Other balances

Reference period Inventories
seasonally adj. data
Inventories
raw data
Employment
seasonally adj. data
Employment
raw data
Expectations on economic situation
seasonally adj. data
Expectations on economic situation
raw data
December-12 0 1 0 -6 -31 -32
January-13 1 0 -3 -9 -27 -27
February-13 -3 -1 -2 0 -39 -39
March-13 -4 -1 2 5 -40 -41

 

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